Senin, 01 Februari 2016















#10,953


North American seasonal flu activity has been pretty slow this winter, but in recent weeks we've seen some signs that it is beginning to increase (see Friday's FluView Report). Other parts of the world haven't been as lucky, and some areas are getting hammered pretty hard (see An Update On The Russian Influenza Epi Report) .


Apparently the CDC is beginning to get reports of serious flu activity, as the following excerpt from today's HAN Advisory explains:
CDC has received recent reports of severe respiratory illness among young- to middle-aged adults with H1N1pdm09 virus infection, some of whom required intensive care unit (ICU) admission; fatalities have been reported. Some of these patients reportedly tested negative for influenza by RIDT; their influenza diagnosis was made later with molecular assays.
The failure of RIDT (rapid flu tests) to detect the H1N1 virus isn't all that unusual, as their sensitivity rates often hover around 50% (see CDC: Updated RIDT Guidance - When `No’ Doesn’t Always Mean No).  A spike in younger adults in intensive care is a concern.


All of which has prompted the release of the following Health Advisory for caregivers.



This is an official
CDC HEALTH ADVISORY
Distributed via the CDC Health Alert Network
Monday, February 01, 2016, 08:50 EST (8:50 AM EST)
CDCHAN-00387

Flu Season Begins: Severe Influenza Illness ReportedCDC urges rapid antiviral treatment of very ill and high risk suspect influenza patients without waiting for testing

Summary
Influenza activity is increasing across the country and CDC has received reports of severe influenza illness. Clinicians are reminded to treat suspected influenza in high-risk outpatients, those with progressive disease, and all hospitalized patients with antiviral medications as soon as possible, regardless of negative rapid influenza diagnostic test (RIDT) results and without waiting for RT-PCR testing results. Early antiviral treatment works best, but treatment may offer benefit when started up to 4-5 days after symptom onset in hospitalized patients. Early antiviral treatment can reduce influenza morbidity and mortality.
Since October 2015, CDC has detected co-circulation of influenza A(H3N2), A(H1N1)pdm09, and influenza B viruses. However, H1N1pdm09 viruses have predominated in recent weeks. CDC has received recent reports of severe respiratory illness among young- to middle-aged adults with H1N1pdm09 virus infection, some of whom required intensive care unit (ICU) admission; fatalities have been reported. Some of these patients reportedly tested negative for influenza by RIDT; their influenza diagnosis was made later with molecular assays.
Most of these patients were reportedly unvaccinated. H1N1pdm09 virus infection in the past has caused severe illness in some children and young- and middle-aged adults. Clinicians should continue efforts to vaccinate patients this season for as long as influenza viruses are circulating, and promptly start antiviral treatment of severely ill and high-risk patients if influenza is suspected or confirmed.
Recommendations
  1. Clinicians should encourage all patients who have not yet received an influenza vaccine this season to be vaccinated against influenza. This recommendation is for patients 6 months of age and older. There are several influenza vaccine options for the 2015-2016 influenza season (see http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm6430a3.htm ), and all available vaccine formulations this season contain A(H3N2), A(H1N1)pdm09, and B virus strains. CDC does not recommend one influenza vaccine formulation over another.
  2. Clinicians should encourage all persons with influenza-like illness who are at high risk for influenza complications (see list below) to seek care promptly to determine if treatment with influenza antiviral medications is warranted.
  3. Decisions about starting antiviral treatment should not wait for laboratory confirmation of influenza. Clinicians using RIDTs to inform treatment decisions should use caution in interpreting negative RIDT results. These tests, defined here as rapid antigen detection tests using immunoassays or immunofluorescence assays, have a high potential for false negative results. Antiviral treatment should not be withheld from patients with suspected influenza, even if they test negative by RIDT; initiation of empiric antiviral therapy, if warranted, should not be delayed.
  4. CDC guidelines for influenza antiviral use during 2015-16 season are the same as during prior seasons (see http://www.cdc.gov/flu/professionals/antivirals/summary-clinicians.htm ).
  5. When indicated, antiviral treatment should be started as soon as possible after illness onset, ideally within 48 hours of symptom onset. Clinical benefit is greatest when antiviral treatment is administered early. However, antiviral treatment might still be beneficial in patients with severe, complicated, or progressive illness, and in hospitalized patients and in some outpatients when started after 48 hours of illness onset, as indicated by clinical and observational studies.
  6. Treatment with an appropriate neuraminidase inhibitor antiviral drugs (oral oseltamivir, inhaled zanamivir, or intravenous peramivir) is recommended as early as possible for any patient with confirmed or suspected influenza who
    1. is hospitalized;
    2. has severe, complicated, or progressive illness; or
    3. is at higher risk for influenza complications. This list includes:
      1. children aged younger than 2 years;
      2. adults aged 65 years and older;
      3. persons with chronic pulmonary (including asthma), cardiovascular (except hypertension alone), renal, hepatic, hematological (including sickle cell disease), metabolic disorders (including diabetes mellitus), or neurologic and neurodevelopment conditions (including disorders of the brain, spinal cord, peripheral nerve, and muscle such as cerebral palsy, epilepsy [seizure disorders], stroke, intellectual disability [mental retardation], moderate to severe developmental delay, muscular dystrophy, or spinal cord injury);
      4. persons with immunosuppression, including that caused by medications or by HIV infection;
      5. women who are pregnant or postpartum (within 2 weeks after delivery);
      6. persons aged younger than 19 years who are receiving long-term aspirin therapy;
      7. American Indians/Alaska Natives;
      8. persons who are morbidly obese (i.e., body-mass index is equal to or greater than 40); and
      9. residents of nursing homes and other chronic-care facilities.
  7. Antiviral treatment can also be considered for suspected or confirmed influenza in previously healthy, symptomatic outpatients not at high risk on the basis of clinical judgment, especially if treatment can be initiated within 48 hours of illness onset.
  8. Clinical judgment, on the basis of the patient’s disease severity and progression, age, underlying medical conditions, likelihood of influenza, and time since onset of symptoms, is important when making antiviral treatment decisions for outpatients.
  9. While influenza vaccination is the best way to prevent influenza, a history of influenza vaccination does not rule out influenza virus infection in an ill patient with clinical signs and symptoms compatible with influenza. Vaccination status should not impede the initiation of prompt antiviral treatment.  
(Continue . . .)


Credit WHO/O. O’Hanlon












#10,952



One of the concerns with the Zika virus - particularly since testing is still difficult - is how to protect the blood supply from possible contamination.  Last week CDC's Principal Deputy Director Anne Schuchat, M.D., during a press conference, indicated that our own FDA is looking at the issue of blood supply, donors, and travelers.


Today Hong Kong's Hospital Authority has announced that starting tomorrow, their Blood Transfusion Service (BTS) will screen donors for recent travel to areas which are currently affected by the Zika virus, and blood donations will be deferred for at least 28 days from their departure date.

This is the same sort of screening process widely used to protect the blood supply from other mosquito-borne pathogens, including malaria and West Nile Virus.



Screening of blood donors to prevent Zika virus
 

The following is issued on behalf of the Hospital Authority:

The spokesperson for Hong Kong Red Cross Blood Transfusion Service (BTS) today (February 1) announced that with effect from tomorrow (February 2), anyone who has resided in or visited any countries which are affected by Zika virus (which include Barbados, Bolivia, Brazil, Cape Verde, Columbia, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, French Guiana, Guadeloupe, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Martinique, Mexico, Panama, Paraguay, Puerto Rico, Saint Martin, Samoa, Suriname, the US Virgin Islands and Venezuela) will be screened under the new screening guidelines and deferred for blood donation in BTS donor centres for at least 28 days from the date he/she departed from the affected country. The incubation period for Zika virus is typically between three and 12 days. The BTS will closely follow the latest information on the virus outbreak as announced by the World Health Organization so as to revise blood donation screening policies.

The spokesperson added that the screening decision has been made as a precautionary measure by the Hospital Authority (BTS) Expert Panel on Blood and Blood Products Safety, and was endorsed by the Blood Transfusion Service Governing Committee. In fact, donors are currently temporarily deferred for blood donation if they have travelled to part of the countries or territories as mentioned in the past 12 months for the prevention of malaria, which is also an infection transmitted by mosquitoes.

The current blood donor screening policy includes enquiring about the travel history of prospective donors in the past 12 months. If a person has visited a malaria high-risk region in the last 12 months, or visited the West Nile virus prevalent regions in North America in the last 28 days, blood donation deferral will apply. The spokesperson also stressed that the objective of the deferral policy is to ensure blood safety, while blood supply would not be affected.



Ends/Monday, February 1, 2016
Issued at HKT 19:37
Credit CDC












#10,951


Last week the CDC held a COCA Call on the Zika Virus that was not well publicized in advance, and so many clinicians were unable to attend the live broadcast. Over the weekend they've posted the audio, transcript, and even a video of the web cast on their website - along with ancillary materials - which you can now access. 

Primarily of interest to clinicians and health care providers, COCA (Clinician Outreach Communication Activity) calls are designed to ensure that practitioners have up-to-date information for their practices. 

The details of this latest presentation are presented below.





Date:Tuesday, January 26, 2016   

Presenter(s)


Ingrid Rabe, MBChB, MMed
Medical Epidemiologist
Division of Vector-Borne Diseases
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Dana Meaney-Delman, MD, MPH, FACOG
Medical Officer
National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Cynthia A. Moore, MD, PhD
Director
Division of Birth Defects and Developmental Disabilities
National Center on Birth Defects and Developmental Disabilities
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Overview

Zika virus is a mosquito-borne flavivirus transmitted primarily by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes and an estimated 80% of persons infected with Zika virus are asymptomatic. Symptomatic disease is generally mild, with symptoms of fever, maculopapular rash, arthralgia, or nonpurulent conjunctivitis that typically last from several days to one week. Sporadic cases and outbreaks of Zika virus disease have occurred in countries in Africa and Southeast Asia. In 2015, the first local Zika virus transmission in the Americas was reported in Brazil and local transmission has now been in several countries or territories in the Americas. In the current outbreak in Brazil, a marked increase in the number of infants born with microcephaly has been reported and Zika virus infections have been confirmed in some infants with microcephaly. However, it is not known how many of the microcephaly cases are associated with Zika virus infection. Travelers to areas with ongoing outbreaks are at risk of becoming infected and spreading the virus to new areas, including the continental United States. During this COCA Call, participants will learn about the epidemiology and clinical manifestation of Zika virus disease and how early recognition and reporting of suspected cases can mitigate the risk of local transmission.

Objectives

At the conclusion of the session, the participant will be able to accomplish the following:

  • Describe the epidemiology, clinical manifestations, management, and prevention of Zika virus disease
  • Discuss diagnostic testing for Zika virus infection and interpretation of test results
  • Articulate the importance of early recognition and reporting of cases
  • State the recommendations for pregnant women and possible Zika virus exposure
  • Discuss evaluation of infants with microcephaly and the relationship of Zika and microcephaly

Call Materials





















#10,950


The Saudi MOH has announced  a new MERS case, this time in the capital of Riyadh involving a 43 year old expatriate male. This is the 8th case reported in 2016, and so far the authorities have not identified a known risk exposure.




While camel (or camel product) exposure has figured prominently in most of the recently reported community acquired cases, over the past 3 years the vast majority of these primary cases have unidentified risk exposures.


Last November, in EID Journal: Risk Factors For Primary MERS-CoV Infection, Saudi Arabia, we finally saw a small case-control study come out of KSA that found 33% of their subjects reported camel contact in the 14 days prior to falling ill vs. 15% in the control group.

While statistically significant, this obviously leaves a good many primary cases for whom camel contact does not appear to be a factor.

The authors of this study acknowledged these non-camel related cases, and wrote:
 
Other potential explanations of MERS-CoV illness in primary case-patients who did not have direct contact with dromedaries include unrecognized community exposure to patients with mild or subclinical MERS-CoV infection or exposure to other sources of primary MERS-CoV infection not ascertained in our study. 

A recent nationwide serosurvey from Saudi Arabia estimated that >44,000 persons might be seropositive for MERS-CoV and might be the source of infection to patients with confirmed primary MERS-CoV illness but with no dromedary exposure (8).

For more on the possibility of there being some limited `stealth’ transmission of the virus in the community see The Community Transmission Mystery and WHO Guidance On The Management Of Asymptomatic MERS Cases.
Resep Batagor Bandung
RESEP BATAGOR BANDUNG
Batagor adalah bakso tahu goreng, merupakan jajanan Bandung populer yang biasa disajikan bersama lumuran saus kacang sebagai khas bumbu batagor (batagor kering) atau disiram dengan kuah (batagor kuah). Resep batagor Bandung akan terasa lebih enak dan spesial gurih dengan ikan tenggiri sebagai bahan batagor yang dicampur dengan tepung kanji. Selain batagor tahu, terdapat juga batagor pangsit yang menggunakan kulit pangsit untuk variasi penyajiannya.

Persiapan Bahan Bumbu Batagor
Cara membuat batagor ikan tenggiri beserta bumbu kacang (sambal kacang) dapat diolah dengan mudah dan sederhana di rumah.
Cara Membuat Batagor
  • 600 gram daging ikan tenggiri dihaluskan
  • 400 gram tepung kanji/tapioka (sagu tani)
  • 2 butir telur ayam
  • 2 batang daun bawang diiris kecil-kecil
  • 1,5 sdt lada/merica butir dihaluskan
  • 8 butir bawang putih dihaluskan
  • 1,5 sdt garam
Kombinasi jumlah tahu dan pangsit bisa sesuaikan selera :
  • 11 buah tahu putih dibelah dua diagonal/bentuk segitiga
  • 60 buah kulit pangsit
  • minyak goreng secukupnya
Cara Membuat Batagor Bandung Ikan Tenggiri
  1. Campurkan daging ikan tenggiri halus dengan semua bahan lainnya, gunakan sarung tangan plastik lalu uleni hingga merata dan kalis.
  2. Tiap-tiap potongan tahu, korek sedikit tengahnya dan beri adonan ikan tadi. Sedangkan untuk setiap kulit pangsit, tuang 1 sendok teh adonan ikan lalu rekatkan menjadi bentuk bunga.
  3. Panaskan minyak goreng yang banyak, kemudian goreng hingga matang dan berwarna kuning keemasan. Angkat dan tiriskan lalu sajikan dengan bumbu kacang.
Persiapan Bahan Bumbu Saus/sambal Kacang
  • 200 gram kacang tanah
  • 4 butir bawang merah
  • 2 siung bawang putih
  • 2 cm kencur
  • 30 gram gula merah
  • 50 ml air asam jawa
  • 500 ml air
  • 10 buah cabe merah keriting
  • 1/2 sdt garam
  • minyak goreng seperlunya
Cara Membuat Saus Kacang
  1. Goreng kacang tanah hingga matang, angkat dan tiriskan dari minyak kemudian haluskan. Haluskan juga bawang merah, bawang putih, kencur dan cabe merah keriting.
  2. Panaskan sedikit minyak dan tumis bumbu halus tadi hingga harum. Tuangkan air, masukkan kacang halus serta aduk rata. Masukkan juga gula merah, air asam jawa dan garam, lalu aduk rata dan masak hingga mendidih serta mengental.

Minggu, 31 Januari 2016

Credit ECDC

Epidemiological update

- See more at: http://ecdc.europa.eu/en/press/news/_layouts/forms/News_DispForm.aspx?ID=1350&List=8db7286c-fe2d-476c-9133-18ff4cb1b568&Source=http%3A%2F%2Fecdc%2Eeuropa%2Eeu%2Fen%2FPages%2Fhome%2Easpx#sthash.GNv94r0o.dpufE

Epidemiological update

- See more at: http://ecdc.europa.eu/en/press/news/_layouts/forms/News_DispForm.aspx?ID=1350&List=8db7286c-fe2d-476c-9133-18ff4cb1b568&Source=http%3A%2F%2Fecdc%2Eeuropa%2Eeu%2Fen%2FPages%2Fhome%2Easpx#sthash.GNv94r0o.dpuf















#10,949


The parallels between the evolution and progression of Zika and Chikungunya are nothing less than striking. 


Until the middle of the last decade both were relatively obscure, neglected tropical diseases, which were limited to sparking small low-impact outbreaks in east and central Africa. Both produced (generally mild) dengue-like symptoms, and both launched themselves on their respective world tours around the same time via the Indian Ocean/Pacific island route.

Chikungunya was the first out of the gate, making a surprise leap to the Indian Ocean island of Réunion in 2005. There, it infected nearly 1/3rd of the island’s 770,000 residents (see 2006 EID article Chikungunya Disease Outbreak, Reunion Island) in just a matter of months.


From there it quickly cut a swath across the Indian ocean, into southeast Asia, and into the Pacific.


It arrived on the  French Part of St. Martins in the fall of 2013, likely carried in by an infected tourist, and quickly spread across the Caribbean and into South and Central America. In the two years since it arrived in the Americas, it has likely infected more than 2 million people.


Zika appears to have arrived in Brazil in 2014, probably carried in by a viremic visitor from the South Pacific, where the virus had slowly been spreading since 2007 (see 2009 EID Journal Zika Virus Outside Africa by Edward B. Hayes).


As its symptoms are generally milder than both CHKV and Dengue, it wasn't until the summer of 2015 that Brazil recognized it was in the midst of a Zika epidemic.

But by October it was reported in Columbia, and over the next four months, it appeared in more than 2 dozen countries and territories across the Caribbean, South and Central America. It is likely already present in many other regions, but has yet to be picked up by surveillance. 

It has only been since November that suspicions have been raised that Zika infection might not be quite as benign as previously believed (see WHO To Convene IHR Emergency Committee Meeting On Zika).


This rapid spread, and possible shift in virulence, has led to speculation that the Zika virus has changed somehow from its milder African version; transmitting more efficiently via mosquitoes or perhaps replicating more efficiently in human hosts.  


Nearly two months ago, in Paper: Zika Adaptations To Humans Helped Spark Global Spread, we looked at a study - yet to be peer reviewed - by researchers at the University of Sao Paulo and the Pasteur Institute of Dakar (Senegal) who believe they have uncovered genetic changes in the Zika virus that occurred after the virus reached the South Pacific in 2007, that may make it better adapted to human physiology.


While we've yet to see any definitive proof that such a change has occurred, in the past few days the subject has come up repeatedly in the media.

A few days ago the Harvard University School of Public Health ran an article called Zika virus in Brazil may be mutated strain while the New Scientist recently carried a report called Did Zika’s recent mutations let it explode as a global threat?


Today, a report from the Anadolu Agency also touches on this idea, with an interview with a Ugandan researcher who believes the virus has adapted to humans during its trek across the Pacifc.

Uganda virus expert says Zika adapting to humans


A top scientist at the Uganda-based facility that first identified the Zika virus has told Anadolu Agency that the bug is multiplying and becoming more adaptable to humans.

Dr. Julius Lutwama, senior principal research officer at the Uganda Virus Research Institute, said the virus outbreak in the Americas can only be reduced by supportive treatment and through controlling disease-carrying mosquitoes.

“There are two strains of the Zika virus, which include the African Zika virus and the Asian strain, which are slightly different,” he said.

“The strain that is causing problems in the Americas comes from Asia, went to Micronesia, Polynesia and moved to South America.” 

Again, all of this is far from settled science, but it is worth noting that CHKV appears to have benefited from a mutation in the middle of the last decade that allowed it to spread more  efficiently by the Aedes Albopictus mosquito (see A Single Mutation in Chikungunya Virus Affects Vector Specificity and Epidemic Potential).

We have, quite frankly, very little research in the literature on Zika - at least when you compare it to what's available for Dengue, Chikungunya, or West Nile Virus.  That will change over time, now that Zika is viewed as potentially more dangerous than previously believed, but good research takes time. 

Below you'll find an early example, via the CDC's EID Journal. A letter reviewing the expansion of Zika out of Africa (and its similarities to CHKV), along with phylogenic analysis of early samples collected in the Americas.

It doesn't answer the question as to whether the virus has recently `adapted' to humans or mosquitoes, but it does find the Zika virus has evolved into 3 distinct genotypes (East Africa, West Africa, and Asia) and that the Asian genotype is the one that has arrived in the Americas.

Follow the link to read:


Volume 22, Number 5—May 2016


Letter


Phylogeny of Zika Virus in Western Hemisphere, 2015


To the Editor: Zika virus (ZIKV) belongs to the genus Flavivirus, family Flaviviridae, and is transmitted by Aedes spp. mosquitoes. Clinical signs and symptoms of human infection with ZIKV include fever, headache, malaise, maculopapular rash, and conjunctivitis.
ZIKV was first isolated in 1947 from the blood of a febrile sentinel rhesus monkey during a study of yellow fever in the Zika Forest of Uganda (1). During the next 20 years, ZIKV isolates were obtained primarily from East and West Africa during arbovirus surveillance studies in the absence of epidemics. During those 20 years, cases of ZIKV infection were detected sporadically; however, given the clinical similarity of ZIKV and dengue virus infections and the extensive cross-reactivity of ZIKV antibodies with dengue viruses, it is possible that ZIKV was associated with epidemics that were incorrectly attributed to dengue viruses. Beginning in 2007, substantial ZIKV outbreaks were reported first in Yap Island (Federated States of Micronesia), then in French Polynesia, and then in other Pacific Islands (24).

Genetic studies have revealed that ZIKV has evolved into 3 distinct genotypes: West African (Nigerian cluster), East African (MR766 prototype cluster), and Asian. It has been postulated that the virus originated in East Africa and then spread into both West Africa and Asia ≈50–100 years ago (5). In early 2015, cases of ZIKV infection were detected in Rio Grande State, northern Brazil, and limited sequence analyses revealed that the virus was most closely related to a 2013 ZIKV from French Polynesia, within the Asian clade (6).

(SNIP)

As reported by Musso et al. (8), the phylogeny and movement of ZIKV and chikungunya virus are strikingly similar. Each virus is grouped into 3 genotypes of very similar geographic distribution: East Africa, West Africa, and Asia. For both viruses, it also seems that viruses from East Africa moved into Asia ≈50–100 years ago and evolved into a unique Asian genotype (9,10). In addition, the similarity with respect to the recent movement of these viruses from Asia into the Pacific Islands and then into the New World (9) is noteworthy. It seems that similar ecologic and/or human social factors might be responsible for the movement of chikungunya virus and ZIKV into the New World at approximately the same time. 

Further studies might elucidate the exact mechanism of this transcontinental movement, leading to effective prevention strategies.
PAHO - Zika Spread Epi Week 4



















#10,948


It is practically an axiom of infectious disease blogging that the first details you get on any emerging disease outbreak are nearly always wrong, or at least misleading. Rarely are all of the pieces to the puzzle immediately available, and the media's narrative is often geared more to boosting circulation than presenting the facts.

As a result, I only sparingly use media accounts in this blog and try to use official releases of information where I can.   Of course, those are often wrong (or biased), as well.

I've called it the `fog of flu'  before - borne of situations where there are alarming but ambiguous reports of something `bad' breaking out - but very little real information.  We deal with it every winter, as we try to parse out the avian H5N1, H5N6 and H7N9 cases from the yearly cascade of seasonal flu and other respiratory outbreaks in places like Egypt and China.


Since November we've been aware of reports of elevated cases of microcephaly in Brazil which the local authorities have tentatively linked to the arrival of Zika last spring. The case numbers have been alarming, the stories of its impact tragic, and we've seen strong warnings issued by our own CDC regarding travel to the region by pregnant women.

But despite all of that, it is far from clear what is going on with Brazil's rates of microcephaly, or even if Zika is responsible.

Overnight both Crof and Dr. Ian Mackay have weighed in on this topic, and I encourage you to read both of their efforts.

First Crof, whose excellent analysis of the (admittedly sketchy) numbers to date (see Is microcephaly surging in Brazil, or just  efforts to find it?), was inspired by Declan Butler's Nature News & Comment article Report questions size of surge in Brazil's microcephaly cases.

Ian took a hard look at this week's  MMWR report Possible Association Between Zika Virus Infection and Microcephaly — Brazil, 2015, and finds it wanting in:

Microcephaly in Brazil: is it occurring in greater numbers than normal or not?

A paper came out yesterday (AEST) from Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR) with the heading...



Possible Association Between Zika Virus Infection and Microcephaly — Brazil, 2015

Reads as though some great data may finally show us a hint of an association between Zika virus (ZIKV) infection and microcephaly disease. Right? 

Nope. There are none. At least none that could approach satisfying that title which highlights that it is not just the popular media who can generate misleading titles (headlines in their case).
(Continue. . .)


This lack of evidence doesn't mean the evidence won't be found, or that a problem doesn't exist.  Only that there are an awful lot of questions yet to be answered.

CIDRAP Director Dr. Michael Osterholm, on the other hand, already finds the evidence compelling. He looks at the rise in mosquito-borne threats in the Americas - due in large part to the cutbacks in mosquito control efforts over the past couple of decades - in:

How Scared Should You Be About Zika?


Zika, or perhaps co-infection (or sequential infection) with Zika and other similar arboviruses (DENV, CHKV), may very well turn out to be responsible for increased rates of microcephaly, spikes in Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS), or other serious outcomes.

Other viral infections have produced similar impacts, so it is certainly plausible.  But until we know for sure, it is important not ignore other possibilities.

While it may be overstated, I find it hard to believe Brazil's reported surge in microcephaly is due entirely to observational bias, even granting that the base line numbers are suspect and most of the cases are still only suspected.  Something certainly seems amiss.

But that's what epidemiological investigations are for . . . to find out

There are other issues, other unknowns, including determining exactly what species of mosquitoes can (and cannot) transmit the virus, that will need to be nailed down by scientists before we can accurately gauge the impact Zika will have on North America.

I certainly have no inside information or special insight into all of this - but considering the potential impacts to individuals, to families, and to society - it seems only prudent to regard Zika as the most likely culprit - at least until proven otherwise.

Which means, until we know different, the smart money will be on preparing to deal with an enhanced mosquito threat this summer, and likely for many years to come.


Because if it isn't Zika, there's always WNV, Dengue, CHKV, and EEE out there, and they can all ruin your entire day.
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Hadith Prophet Muhammad

It is narrated on the authority of Amirul Mu’minin, Abu Hafs ‘Umar bin al-Khattab, radiyallahu ‘anhu, who said: I heard the Messenger of Allah, sallallahu ‘alayhi wasallam, say: “Actions are (judged) by motives (niyyah) , so each man will have what he intended. Thus, he whose migration (hijrah) was to Allah and His Messenger, his migration is to Allah and His Messenger; but he whose migration was for some worldly thing he might gain, or for a wife he might marry, his migration is to that for which he migrated.” [Al-Bukhari & Muslim]

Abu Hamzah Anas bin Malik, radiyallahu ‘anhu, who was the servant of the Messenger of Allah, sallallahu ‘alayhi wasallam, reported that the Prophet, sallallahu ‘alayhi wasallam, said: “None of you truly believes (in Allah and in His religion) until he loves for his brother what he loves for himself.” [Al-Bukhari & Muslim]

About History

The urgent of reading history is that we become aware of his past life, progress and destruction of a nation, understand the wisdom behind the nation's history, feel the love, angry, sad, all within the scope of history. Because history is an art. Art is beauty. So people who do not know history, its own history, at least then he would not know the beauty of the wheel of life that applies to every person.

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