Sabtu, 16 Januari 2016


Dubois County - Credit Wikipedia













#10,895


 While poultry farmers and the USDA have been waiting anxiously to see if Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza would return this winter, the subtypes we've been expecting were HPAI H5's - specifically H5N2 and H5N8.

Today, in a surprise statement, APHIS has announced the detection of a completely different HPAI strain - H7N8.


There aren't a lot of citations for H7N8 beyond a handful of low path findings in healthy wild birds. Korea reported an outbreak of LPAI (low path) H7N8 in 2007.
Credit Influenza Research Database
 
There is obviously a lot we are going to need to learn about this newest virus; how this HP strain evolved, how easily it transmits, and how it got past the farm's biosecurity measures.


For now, it is too soon to know how much of an impact this strain is going to have.  But this latest finding does prove that influenza never ceases to surprise us.



USDA Confirms Highly Pathogenic H7N8 Avian Influenza in a Commercial Turkey Flock in Dubois County, Indiana



Contacts:
Andrea McNally (202)799-7033
andrea.c.mcnally@aphis.usda.gov
Lyndsay Cole (970)494-7410
lyndsay.m.cole@aphis.usda.gov

WASHINGTON, January 15, 2016 -- The United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) has confirmed the presence of highly pathogenic H7N8 avian influenza (HPAI) in a commercial turkey flock in Dubois County, Indiana.  This is a different strain of HPAI than the strains that caused the 2015 outbreak.  There are no known cases of H7N8 infections in humans.  As a reminder, the proper handling and cooking of poultry and eggs to an internal temperature of 165 ˚F kills bacteria and viruses, including HPAI.
Samples from the turkey flock, which experienced increased mortality, were tested at the Indiana Animal Disease Diagnostic Laboratory at Purdue University, which is a part of USDA’s National Animal Health Laboratory Network, and confirmed by USDA this morning. APHIS is working closely with the Indiana State Board of Animal Health on a joint incident response. State officials quarantined the affected premises and depopulation of birds on the premises has already begun. Depopulation prevents the spread of the disease. Birds from the flock will not enter the food system.
As part of existing avian influenza response plans, Federal and State partners are working jointly on additional surveillance and testing in the nearby area.  The rapid testing and response in this incident is the result of months of planning with local, state, federal and industry partners to ensure the most efficient and effective coordination. Since the previous HPAI detections in 2015, APHIS and its state and industry partners have learned valuable lessons to help implement stronger preparedness and response capabilities. In September, APHIS published a HPAI Fall Preparedness and Response Plan that captures the results of this planning effort, organizing information on preparatory activities, policy decisions and updated strategy documents.
The United States has the strongest AI surveillance program in the world, and USDA is working with its partners to actively look for the disease in commercial poultry operations, live bird markets and in migratory wild bird populations.
Anyone involved with poultry production, from the small backyard to the large commercial producer, should review their biosecurity activities to assure the health of their birds. To facilitate such a review, a biosecurity self-assessment and educational materials can be found at http://www.uspoultry.org/animal_husbandry/intro.cfm

In addition to practicing good biosecurity, all bird owners should prevent contact between their birds and wild birds and report sick birds or unusual bird deaths to State/Federal officials, either through their state veterinarian or through USDA’s toll-free number at 1-866-536-7593.  Additional information on biosecurity for backyard flocks can be found at http://healthybirds.aphis.usda.gov.

Additional background


Avian influenza (AI) is caused by an influenza type A virus which can infect poultry (such as chickens, turkeys, pheasants, quail, domestic ducks, geese and guinea fowl) and is carried by free flying waterfowl such as ducks, geese and shorebirds. AI viruses are classified by a combination of two groups of proteins: hemagglutinin or “H” proteins, of which there are 16 (H1–H16), and neuraminidase or “N” proteins, of which there are 9 (N1–N9). Many different combinations of “H” and “N” proteins are possible. Each combination is considered a different subtype, and can be further broken down into different strains. AI viruses are further classified by their pathogenicity (low or high)— the ability of a particular virus strain to produce disease in domestic chickens.

Jumat, 15 Januari 2016










 







#10,894


In the first 19 months after it emerged, China reported 4 human infections with the HPAI H5N6 avian flu virus.  Two cases in 2014, and two more in the first 11 months of 2015.

Over the past 30 days, China has reported four more cases, all in Guangdong Province,  raising intense media speculation that something may have changed in the virus's behavior. 

Today Chinese scientists are assuring that no human-to-human transmission of this emerging virus has been documented.




Source: Xinhua   2016-01-15 20:45:33     


BEIJING, Jan. 15 (Xinhua) -- Experts have found there is currently no evidence showing the H5N6 avian influenza virus (AIV) is capable of human-to-human infection, said an official at the National Health and Family Planning Commission (NHFPC) on Friday.

Xiong Huang, deputy head of the publicity department of NHFPC, made the announcement based on growing concerns about avian flu in China.

Since September 2015, four isolated H5N6 cases have been reported across the country, with three in south China's Guangdong and one in neighboring Jiangxi Province, according to Xiong.

Despite no human-to-human infections of H5N6 AIV so far, the channels for the virus to spread from bird to human have yet to be eliminated, as people are more likely to be infected with respiratory diseases in winter, while cage-free poultry farming is still common in the country, Xiong said.

The NHFPC has already taken measures to prevent and control the disease, and countermeasures are being taken in the provinces hit by H5N6, Xiong added.

The world's first human H5N6 infection was reported in May 2014 in southwest China's Sichuan Province. A 26-year-old woman with the disease died in Shenzhen City seven months after diagnosis. 

With the Lunar New Year celebration fast approaching (see Hong Kong Alert For Holiday Avian Flu Threat) concerns run high that the winter epidemic of H7N9, and now sporadic cases of H5N6, might expand as millions travel across Asia over the next 30 days. 
 
The fact that only four, widely scattered, cases have been reported in the past month is a good sign the virus is not spreading easily.

But by the same token, the sudden increase in cases tells us the H5N6 virus is far better distributed in China's poultry than it was last year, making H5N6 a virus to watch.


For additional background on this emerging avian flu virus, you may wish to revisit H5N6: The Other HPAI H5 Threat.















#10,893


The brief WHO announcement this morning (see WHO Confirms Ebola Death In Sierra Leone), has been followed up by the statement below:

New Ebola case in Sierra Leone; WHO continues to stress risk of more flare-ups

WHO statement
 
15 January 2016 


A new case of Ebola has been confirmed in Sierra Leone, reflecting the ongoing risk of new flare-ups of the virus in affected countries.

The Sierra Leone government acted rapidly to respond to this new case. Through the country’s new emergency operations centre, a joint team of local authorities, WHO and partners are investigating the origin of the case, identifying contacts and initiating control measures to prevent further transmission.

WHO stressed in a statement yesterday (14 January), that Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone remain at high risk of additional small outbreaks of Ebola in the coming months due to the virus persisting in survivors after recovery. 

"We are now at a critical period in the Ebola epidemic as we move from managing cases and patients to managing the residual risk of new infections,” said Dr Bruce Aylward, WHO’s Special Representative for the Ebola Response, yesterday. “We still anticipate more flare-ups and must be prepared for them.”

Sierra Leone is still in a 90-day period of enhanced surveillance following the declaration on 7 November 2015 of the end of Ebola transmission in the country. This period is designed to ensure no hidden chains of transmission have been missed and to detect any new flare-ups of the disease. 











#10,892


Last week, in `The `M' Word' we looked at the media's first reaction to a study (Variations in Spike Glycoprotein Gene of MERS-CoV, South Korea, 2015) that found enough genetic variance among a small subset of the Korean viruses sequenced from last summer's MERS outbreak to place them into a new clade.

Two mutations were located in the receptor binding domain of the virus's spike protein, although scientists still don't know what effect - if any - they would have on the spread, or impact, of the virus. 

Last summer, when the virus was running rampant through Korean hospitals, the WHO (see Yonhap News report WHO chief says no mutation of MERS virus found in S. Korea) - and others - reassured that the Korean MERS Sequences Closely Match Middle Eastern Virus. 

The rub being that `Closely' isn't the same thing as `Exactly'. 

And determining what - if any - impact minor genetic changes might have on a virus's behavior can take months of observation. A fine point that officials - perhaps more interested in dampening concerns than in explaining the nuances - didn't exactly stress. 

Simple, reassuring statements are often preferred by governments and agencies in the midst of a crisis, but they sometimes come back and bite you.

Which explains why - seven months later - the scathing headline in the Korean Times today reads:



When the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) outbreak swept the country last year, The Korea Times raised the possibility of a virus mutation (http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2015/06/116_180045.html), citing its unusually high infection and low fatality rates.

Following the report, the World Health Organization (WHO) and the government conducted genome sequencing studies of the virus together and concluded that no genetic mutation had occurred.

Speaking to reporters on June 18 in 2015, WHO Director-General Margaret Chan said, "The virus has been sequenced. So far, no genetic changes have been detected that could make the virus easier to transmit among humans."

However, after their own sequencing program, a group of researchers drew a different conclusion this month: the virus apparently had mutated from the one found in Saudi Arabia, where Korea's first MERS patient was infected.

(SNIP)

It is unclear whether WHO investigators lied about the virus mutation. If not, however, the study suggests that they failed to figure it out at a critical time of crisis.


I've only printed a few excerpts from a much longer story, so follow the link to read the (English Language) report in its entirety.

The problem with all of this is that we still don't know whether the genetic changes detected in the Korean MERS virus affected its transmissibility. The authors of the study that found these changes wrote `we cannot conclude that deleterious effects promoting spread of infection will occur because of these mutations.'

If we don't know now, it is hard to fault the WHO for not knowing seven months ago. Could they have been a little more up front about the limits of their knowledge of role of minor genetic changes?

Absolutely.

After the declaration that `no mutations' were found, it would have been a good idea to add that the impact of small genetic changes are not always immediately apparent. An uncertainty I went into in my blog last June in some detail.

Highlighting uncertainties and unknowns is viewed by some, however, as complicating the message.  But doing so can help avoid the kind of second guessing we are seeing in the Korean media today.

Public health agencies have a habit of issuing overlyreassuring statements, or in not clarifying the limits of their knowledge.  And time after time, we see that come back to haunt them.


Last September, in FAO: Addressing Avian Influenza A(H7N9) Risk Communications, we looked at some sage advice offered by risk communications expert Dr. Peter Sandman, where he strongly advises:

• Inform early, often and transparently as the situation develops

—— Warn that messages designed early in an unfolding event may change as knowledge evolves.
—— Be open about your level of uncertainty.
—— Share your wish that you could be more certain.
—— When you modify your recommendations, highlight the fact that you are making a change and explain why the
change needs to be made.

—— Avoid both overly optimistic and overly alarming speculation.
—— Share the worst-case and most-likely scenarios that you are considering.
—— Show empathy (rather than contempt) for the excessive fears or undue complacency of your audience.
• Do not over-reassure—— Avoid the temptation to say “The situation is under control.”
—— Instead of saying “the government is taking all possible/necessary measures,” convey the honest extent of your activities and explain them in detail.


This is just a sample, you'll find a great deal more available on that blog.  For more on effective risk communications, you may wish to revisit:

Sandman & Lanard On Ebola & Failures Of Imagination

NPR: Jody Lanard On Addressing Ebola Fears

Sandman & Lanard: Ebola Risk Communications

0435 EST Today








#10,891


With a brief email to journalists this morning and a tweet (above) the World Health Organization has confirmed the suspected Ebola fatality reported in Sierra Leone last night (see Crofsblog Sierra Leone: Ebola death suspected hours after WHO declares end to epidemic in Liberia) - a disappointing, but not unexpected setback in the fight against Ebola in West Africa. 

Just yesterday the WHO declared the Current Ebola Outbreak Over In Liberia - West Africa At Zero, but everyone involved was well aware how tenuous this hold on `zero' would be.  


The virus is still in the environment, and it is likely that hundreds of recovered Ebola victims still carry - and may still shed - small amounts of the virus. Getting to `zero' transmissions - defined as going 42 days within in a country without a reported case - was a gargantuan task.

Staying there is proving very difficult. 

We've seen similar setbacks in Liberia (twice), and yesterday the WHO warned that new flare ups were not only possible, they were likely.    For now, the focus will be on tracing contacts of this latest victim, and containing any chains of transmission. 

The victim is reportedly a 22 year old woman who died earlier this month after seeking medical assistance in Northern Tonkolili District, but hailing from the Northern Kambia district near the Guinea border.

I imagine we'll get a more detailed official statement later today, once the details of this case are pinned down.



Cara Membuat Soto Ayam Lamongan Resep Koya Enak Praktis
Resep Soto Ayam Lamongan Koya - Soto Lamongan asli Jawa Timur merupakan salah satu menu kuliner spesial yang sangat populer di dunia persotoan nusantara. Selain bumbu soto lamongan dengan kuah yang kuning serta berbagai pelengkapnya, penyajian dengan taburan bubuk koya soto merupakan ciri khas utama yang menjadikan soto lamongan semakin sedap dan gurih saat disantap.

Resep soto ayam khas lamongan yang enak dengan cara membuat koya soto yang praktis dan unik dapat dengan mudah kita olah di rumah. Kalau ada ayam kampung tentunya bisa menjadi pilihan untuk menambah gurihnya cota rasa hidangan soto spesial ini.

Bahan Bumbu Soto Lamongan
Persiapan Bahan dan Bumbu Soto Lamongan Koya
  • 1 kg daging ayam dan 1 buah jeruk nipis untuk lumuran
  • 2200 ml air
  • 2 lembar daun jeruk
  • 3 lembar daun salam
  • 2 batang serai digeprek
  • 3 cm lengkuas
  • 1 sdm garam
  • 1 sdm gula pasir
  • 1/2 sdt kaldu bubuk
Bumbu dihaluskan :
  • 8 butir bawang merah
  • 5 siung bawang putih
  • 4 butir kemiri
  • 3 cm jahe
  • 5 cm kunyit
Bahan koya :
  • 5 buah kerupuk udang
  • 4 siung bawang putih diiris tipis
  • 1/4 sdt garam
Bahan sambal :
  • 20 buah cabe rawit merah
  • 1 siung bawang putih
  • 1/4 sdt garam
  • 50 ml air matang
Bahan pelengkap penyajian :
  • 100 gram soun direndam air
  • 100 gram toge dibuang ekor
  • 100 gram kol diiris tipis
  • 1 batang daun bawang diiris tipis
  • telur rebus, potongan jeruk nipis dan bawang goreng sesuai selera
Cara Membuat Soto Ayam Lamongan
  1. Potong-potong daging ayam dan cuci hingga bersih, lumuri dengan air jeruk nipis sekitar 15 menit lalu cuci kembali. Rebus ayam dengan 2200 ml air bersama daun salam hingga kuah berkaldu dan daging matang atau sekitar 20 menit. Angkat dan tiriskan daging ayam, sedangkan air rebusan biarkan dalam panci untuk kuah soto.
  2. Panaskan sedikit minyak, tumis bumbu halus, daun jeruk, lengkuas dan serai hingga harum. Panaskan kembali kuah kaldu dari rebusan ayam tadi, kemudian masukkan tumisan bumbu, aduk rata dan masak hingga mendidih. Beri garam dan gula pasir, cicipi rasanya bila perlu tambahkan kaldu bubuk lalu aduk rata, lanjutkan memasak hingga mendidih kembali dan kuah matang.
  3. Daging ayam yang sudah direbus tadi digoreng dalam minyak panas hingga berwarna kecoklatan, angkat dan tiriskan lalu suwir-suwir.
Cara Membuat Koya Soto Lamongan
Cara Membuat Koya Soto Lamongan
  1. Kerupuk udang digoreng hingga matang, selanjutnya bawang putih juga digoreng hingga matang kecoklatan.
  2. Tumbuk bawang putih dan garam hingga halus, masukkan kerupuk udang lalu tumbuk halus sambil aduk rata hingga menyatu dengan bawang putih.
Cara Membuat Sambal
Rebus cabe rawit dan bawang putih dengan air secukupnya hingga layu, angkat dan tiriskan lalu blender bersama 50 ml air hingga halus. Tuang dalam wadah sambal lalu tambahkan garam dan aduk rata.

Cara Penyajian Soto Ayam Lamongan Koya
Siapkan mangkuk saji, masukkan irisan kol, toge, soun dan suwiran ayam beserta telur rebus, kemudian sirami dengan kuah soto. Taburi irisan daun bawang, bawang goreng dan koya, lalu sajikan soto lamongan bersama sambal dan jeruk nipis.

Regions Where Aedes Mosquitoes Are Endemic













#10,890



The news this week that an imported case of Zika arrived in Harris County, Tx is only the latest in a steady stream of arbovirus infected travelers who arrive in the United States pretty much on a daily basis.  Zika is a new threat, but for years we've had imported cases of Dengue, Malaria, and more recently - Chikungunya - to deal with. 

In 2009, Dengue fever returned to Florida after six decades without a locally acquired case (see MMWR: Dengue Fever In Key West), and since that time we've seen sporadic outbreaks in South Florida, Texas, and most recently Hawaii. 

That MMWR report described Florida's vulnerability to Dengue as follows:

The environmental and social conditions for dengue transmission have long been present in south Florida: the potential for introduction of virus from returning travelers and visitors, the abundant presence of a competent mosquito vector, a largely nonimmune population, and sufficient opportunity for mosquitoes to bite humans.

The same mosquito vectors (Aedes) that transmit Dengue also can transmit Chikungunya, (and Zika) and so this assessment is likely valid for all three arboviruses. In late 2013, soon after Chikungunya began to spread rapidly across the Caribbean, the CDC issued a HAN Advisory On Recognizing & Treating Chikungunya Infection for clinicians in the United States. 

True to form, in 2014 Florida reported 459 International Travel-Associated Chikungunya Fever Cases and 11 cases of locally acquired CHKV (cite Fl. DOH).  Nationally, in 2014, the United States reported roughly 2,800 imported cases. 


We got lucky in that CHKV failed to establish a foothold that year, but past failures are no guarantee that our luck will hold forever. Now, CHKV and Dengue are joined by a new threat - Zika - and 2016 could be a very challenging year for mosquito control in Florida, and across the country.


The State of Florida published it's 2015 Arbovirus re-cap last week, and it it we find that more than 200 international travelers with either Dengue (83 cases), Chikungunya (73 cases), or Malaria (53 cases) were reported to the Health Department last year. 

As 80% of Dengue and Chikungunya cases are believed asymptomatic (or produce only mild symptoms), one can assume these reported cases are only subset of the total. 

Each one of these infected travelers has the potential to provide a blood meal to an Aedes mosquito, who could then spread the virus (or an Anopheles mosquitos with the malaria parasite) to others. Granted, unless conditions are ideal, it may take many repeated introductions of these diseases over years  before one becomes established in the United States.

But as we saw with West Nile Virus, which only arrived in 1999, it can happen much quicker than we ever imagined.   In 2015 WNV killed at least 119 Americans.
2015 Neuroinvasive WNV



WNV has an advantage in that it has a sylvatic cycle (birds to mosquitoes). Human infection is basically a result of incidental collateral damage (see graphic below).  



Zika, Dengue, and Chikungunya - at least outside of Africa and Asia - have no known non-human animal reservoirs, which means they have a harder time becoming endemic. But when enough people become infected, these viruses are sometimes able to sustain themselves in an Urban Cycle, where transmission is strictly human-to-mosquito-to human.



The conventional wisdom, however, says that (at least in colder climes), the virus must be reintroduced each year as infected mosquitoes die off during the winter.


Possibly throwing a wrench into that idea is a recent study (Feb 2015) suggesting that some mosquitoes may be capable of vertical transmission of some arboviruses (see  Natural transovarial transmission of dengue virus 4 in Aedes aegypti from Cuiabá, State of Mato Grosso, Brazil), allowing new generations of mosquitoes to be born already carrying the disease.  The authors write:

The findings reported in this study demonstrate that natural transovarial infection by DENV-4 is occurring in Ae. Aegypti in Cuiabá with a relatively high MIR index, which favors the birth of mosquitoes already infected with DENV at the beginning of epidemics. This mechanism may be responsible for virus maintenance during interepidemic periods, especially in critical areas with elevated mosquito density and human disease incidence.

There are a lot of factors at work - a lot of unknowns - but the upshot of all of this is that Zika, Chikungunya, and Dengue all have at least some potential to spark (likely regional, and limited) epidemics in the contiguous United States.

Maybe not this year, or next, but the requisite ingredients are all here.

A continual and growing influx of infected travelers and a competent mosquito vector. Just add in the right weather conditions, and a tightly packed urban population - and you have a recipe for an outbreak.

And it isn't just the United States at risk. 

Europe, Australia, and Japan have all reported arbovirus outbreaks in regions that haven't reported mosquito borne diseases for decades. A few months ago, in ECDC Vector Maps: Invasive Ticks, Mosquitoes & Sand Flies we looked at numerous places in Europe where these diseases might become established once again.


While the United States and Europe have waged very successful wars against mosquitoes over the past 70 years, many of our mosquito control tools are starting to lose effectiveness around the world.


The WHO warns:

Insecticide resistance already widespread

Resistance is known to affect all major malaria vector species and all four recommended classes of insecticides. Since 2010, a total of 60 countries have reported resistance to at least one class of insecticide, with a total of 49 of those countries reporting resistance to two or more classes. However, our understanding of the extent of the problem is incomplete, because:

  • many countries do not carry out adequate routine monitoring for insecticide resistance in local vectors; and
  • monitoring data are often not reported in a timely manner.
A 2014 PLoS One Study Insecticide Resistance Status of United States Populations of Aedes albopictus and Mechanisms Involved noted some pockets of mosquitoes resistant to DDT and malathion in both Florida and New Jersey.  They wrote:

This study showed standard larvicides and pyrethroids used for mosquito control are still effective against USA populations of Ae. albopictus, but it also demonstrates the importance of research on insecticide resistance and the constant need to develop new tools, new insecticides, and innovative strategies to prevent the development of insecticide resistance in these critical vectors of human diseases. 

And in 2010, in From the `Nature Bats Last’ Dept we looked at reports that one of our most effective mosquito repellents - DEET, or N,N-Diethyl-m-toluamide  (a name that, for some reason, never really caught on with the public) - may be losing some effectiveness.  A story I followed up with in 2013 with PLoS One: Mosquitoes Less Deterred By DEET After Previous Exposure. 


All signs that  - with a growing array of mosquito-borne threats in the wings - we can't afford to take the mosquito threat lightly anymore.  Not even in places that have been considered `safe' from these types of diseases for decades.


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It is narrated on the authority of Amirul Mu’minin, Abu Hafs ‘Umar bin al-Khattab, radiyallahu ‘anhu, who said: I heard the Messenger of Allah, sallallahu ‘alayhi wasallam, say: “Actions are (judged) by motives (niyyah) , so each man will have what he intended. Thus, he whose migration (hijrah) was to Allah and His Messenger, his migration is to Allah and His Messenger; but he whose migration was for some worldly thing he might gain, or for a wife he might marry, his migration is to that for which he migrated.” [Al-Bukhari & Muslim]

Abu Hamzah Anas bin Malik, radiyallahu ‘anhu, who was the servant of the Messenger of Allah, sallallahu ‘alayhi wasallam, reported that the Prophet, sallallahu ‘alayhi wasallam, said: “None of you truly believes (in Allah and in His religion) until he loves for his brother what he loves for himself.” [Al-Bukhari & Muslim]

About History

The urgent of reading history is that we become aware of his past life, progress and destruction of a nation, understand the wisdom behind the nation's history, feel the love, angry, sad, all within the scope of history. Because history is an art. Art is beauty. So people who do not know history, its own history, at least then he would not know the beauty of the wheel of life that applies to every person.

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