Sabtu, 08 Agustus 2015
10.10
Raden Rahmad
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Jumat, 07 Agustus 2015
19.28
Raden Rahmad
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# 10,395
Yesterday we looked at August Tropical Climatology & The Latest CSU Hurricane Forecast, and for those of us who live and work in hurricane prone regions, the news was good; a well below-average number of storms are expected for the remainder of the season.
Yesterday NOAA released their outlook for the rest of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season, and once again, the news is encouraging.
While a reduced likelihood of hurricanes is welcome news, it in no way means we won’t see one or more storms impact the continental United States over the next few months. Only that there are likely to be fewer storms than normal. An important distinction, as it only takes one to ruin your entire year.
Increased likelihood of below-normal Atlantic hurricane season
Updated outlook calls for 90 percent probability of below-normal season
August 6, 2015
The NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s updated 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook calls for a 90 percent chance of a below-normal hurricane season. A below-normal season is now even more likely than predicted in May, when the likelihood of a below-normal season was 70 percent.
“Tropical storms and hurricanes can and do strike the United States, even in below-normal seasons and during El Niño events,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “Regardless of our call for below-normal storm activity, people along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts should remain prepared and vigilant, especially now that the peak months of the hurricane season have started.”
Two tropical storms already have struck the United States this year. Ana made landfall in South Carolina in May, and Bill made landfall in Texas in June.
The 90 percent probability of a below-normal season is the highest confidence level given by NOAA since seasonal hurricane outlooks began in 1998.Satellite image of Subtropical Storm Ana forming off the East Coast. This image was taken by GOES East on May 8, 2015. (Credit: NOAA)
The updated outlook also lowers the overall expected storm activity this season. The outlook now includes a 70 percent chance of 6-10 named storms (from 6-11 in the initial May Outlook), of which 1-4 will become hurricanes (from 3-6 in May), and 0-1 will become major hurricanes (from 0-2 in May). These ranges — which include the three named storms to-date (Ana, Bill, and Claudette) — are centered well below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
Forecasters attribute the high likelihood of a below-normal season to three primary factors:
- El Niño has strengthened as predicted, and NOAA’s latest El Niño forecast calls for a significant El Niño to continue through the remainder of the hurricane season;
- Atmospheric conditions typically associated with a significant El Niño, such as strong vertical wind shear and enhanced sinking motion across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea, are now present. These conditions make it difficult for storms to develop, and they are predicted to continue through the remaining four months of the hurricane season; and
- Tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperatures are predicted to remain below average and much cooler than the rest of the global tropics.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30.
18.53
Raden Rahmad
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#10,394
While it has yet to be posted on their English language website, we know that yesterday one MERS case was reported in Riyadh. Today, 3 more cases have been reported – bringing the number of new Saudi MERS cases reported over the past five days to eleven.
One of today’s cases is listed as in `home isolation’, and is likely part of the family cluster I wrote about last night (see Saudi MOH Statement On MERS Family Cluster).
Two of today’s cases are obviously part of a cluster, while the exposure for the third case is still under review.
18.28
Raden Rahmad
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Photo Credit - CDC PHIL
#10,393
Because of the six months lead time required to produce and distribute a flu vaccine, twice each year the World Health Organization gathers together global influenza experts to decide on what stains to include in the next vaccine. Decisions on the vaccine being used right now in the Southern Hemisphere were made at the end of September 2014, while the Northern Hemisphere’s fall vaccine were decided upon last February.
It is always a little dicey trying to predict what flu strains will be dominate 6 to 12 months in the future, and last year we saw a big `mismatch’ with the H3N2 component (see MMWR: Reduced Protection From This Year’s Flu Vaccine).
The formulation for both of those vaccines this year is identical, with (for the 6th year running) the 2009 H1H1 strain, a revamped H3N2 component, and a Yamagata lineage B/Phuket/3073/2013-like virus
25 September 2014
It is recommended that trivalent vaccines for use in the 2015 influenza season (southern hemisphere winter) contain the following:
- an A/California/7/2009 (H1N1)pdm09-like virus;
- an A/Switzerland/9715293/2013 (H3N2)-like virusa;
- a B/Phuket/3073/2013-like virus.
It is recommended that quadrivalent vaccines containing two influenza B viruses contain the above three viruses and a B/Brisbane/60/2008-like virus.
In addition to picking which H1 and and H3 strain to include, experts must decide which of the two lineages of influenza B (Yamagata or Victoria) will dominate the next flu season. Influenza B often becomes the predominant strain late in the flu season, after influenza A has peaked, which puts even more time between the decision of what lineage to use, and its arrival.
Over the first decade of the 21st century, the trivalent vaccine matched the dominant B strain only about 50% of the time. In 2012, the FDA approved the first Quadrivalent Flu vaccine, containing both Victoria and Yamagata lineage B strains (see Two B's Or Not Two B's? That Is the Question).
Being relatively stable, influenza B viruses don’t get as much respect as the highly mutable influenza A’s, even though they are quite capable of producing large epidemics with significant morbidity and mortality.
This graphic from CDC’s 2014-15 FluView shows Influenza B (green) dominating last spring.
With influenza activity in full swing in the Southern Hemisphere, we usually look at Australia and New Zealand around this time of year for clues as to what we might expect in the Northern Hemisphere this fall and winter.
Yesterday Eurosurveillance published a Rapid Communications indicating that New South Wales (NSW) is reporting unusually heavy influenza B activity, and that a substantial portion of their cases are due to the Victoria lineage, which is not included in this year’s standard trivalent flu vaccine.
A bit of a surprise as the most recent WHO Influenza Surveillance Report (July 27th) found globally that detections of the B-Yamagata lineage continue to outnumber B-Victoria by nearly 20 to 1. ( `Of the characterized B viruses, 89 (94.7%) belonged to the B-Yamagata lineage and 5 (5.3%) to the B-Victoria lineage.’).
Eurosurveillance, Volume 20, Issue 31, 06 August 2015
Rapid communications
Z Jennings1, I Carter1, K McPhie1, J Kok (
)1,2,3, D E Dwyer1,2,3
During the early weeks of the 2015 Australian influenza season, influenza B accounted for 67% (821/1,234) of all positive influenza tests in New South Wales. Of 81 successive influenza B viruses characterised, 33 (41%) were from children aged < 16 years; 23/81 (28%) belonged to the B/Victoria lineage. This lineage is not contained in the southern hemisphere's 2015 trivalent influenza vaccine. The significant B/Victoria lineage activity in the southern hemisphere suggests that the quadrivalent vaccine should be considered for the northern hemisphere.
The first four weeks of the 2015 influenza season in New South Wales, Australia (15 June to 12 July) have shown substantial early influenza B activity, with frequent detection of influenza B/Victoria lineage viruses, including in children (aged under 16 years). This lineage is not contained in the southern hemisphere’s 2015 [1] or the northern hemisphere’s 2015/16 trivalent influenza vaccine [2].
Whether this activity in NSW is an outlier or a harbinger is far too soon to say. The authors do, however, suggest this uncertainty may make the quadrivalent vaccine a better choice for the Northern Hemisphere this fall.
They conclude by writing:
Although the sample size of the present study is small, our preliminary data suggest early and significant B/Victoria lineage virus activity in children and adults in New South Wales. The recommended influenza B component of the 2015/16 northern hemisphere’s trivalent influenza vaccine is the B/Phuket/3073/2013-like virus (B/Yamagata lineage). As there may be incomplete protection against B/Victoria lineage infection for those receiving the trivalent vaccine, our early data would suggest that a quadrivalent vaccine should be considered for the upcoming northern hemisphere influenza season (and for travellers to the southern hemisphere). This will be especially relevant if the northern hemisphere experiences early and widespread influenza B/Victoria activity similar to that being observed in the current southern hemisphere winter.
RESEP PUDING SUSU MOZAIK
- 1 bungkus agar-agar putih
- 800 ml susu cair ultra
- 100 gram gula pasir
- 4 bungkus nutrijell (jelly powder) aneka rasa masing-masing 10 gram
- 1600 ml susu cair (tiap rasa 400 ml) atau bisa ganti air biasa
- 400 gram gula pasir (masing-masing 100 gram)
- 4 macam pewarna makanan sesuai selera supaya tampilan warnanya lebih ngejreng
- Campur 1 bungkus nutrijell rasa melon dengan 100 gram gula pasir, 400 ml susu cair dan pewarna hijau. Aduk rata lalu masak sambil sesekali diaduk hingga mendidih, matikan api lalu tuang dalam wadah.
- Lakukan hal yang sama untuk tiap bungkus nutrijell lainnya, misalkan warna merah untuk nutrijell rasa strawberry, kuning untuk rasa mango dan orange untuk rasa jeruk. Setelah dingin atau beku kemudian potong-potong puding berbentuk dadu.
- Campurkan 1 bungkus agar-agar putih dengan gula pasir dan susu cair, aduk rata kemudian didihkan sambil sesekali diaduk lalu matikan api dan biarkan uap panasnya hilang.
- Siapkan cetakan puding dan basahi dengan air, susun secara acak potongan puding nutrijel dalam cetakan puding tersebut kemudian tuang atau sirami dengan puding susu. Biarkan beku atau simpan dalam lemari es lalu siap untuk dipotong-potong dan disajikan.